Re: HANDICAPPING YOUR WAY.....YOUR IDEAS.....FINALLY!!

I have some questions regarding Thoropredictor formulas? How effective are these formulas when tested with the Database you have at your disposal and then applying them to today's races? Secondly, I believe that many formulas, one develops, change as the handicapper becomes track specific in his daily work! If so, is there a database one can test these formulas at a track you handicap? Thirdly, what is your handicapping philosophy regarding present pp's vs total pp's?
Thank you in advance for your comments!
Maxspa

Re: HANDICAPPING YOUR WAY.....YOUR IDEAS.....FINALLY!!

All,
My first handicapping aid for using Thoropredictor was to develop a worksheet that will allow me to see where the strengths of the Thoropredictor program are to be found. This worksheet will change as necessary, while I progress through this project.
Handicappers prepare for some surprises, It's too early to locate any significant trends but last week at Belmont this factor was dynamite( Jockey- Horse winning pct). One has to be be careful to use any factor after short usage but this program will allow research to see how your factors respond over the long term. There were other pleasant surprises as well. On the top of the list is the ability the user has to put his own ideas into the basic handicapping scheme. Specifically and most intriguing is the number of races one can use in the handicapping process. I like to use pp's that are current but the idea of lifetime past performances can prove to be a possibility.
Keeping an open mind using the Thoropredictor will be my guideline and so using self made formulas will be on the back burner for now. This is an interesting, thought provoking and well thought out program!
Maxspa

Using Some of Thoropredictor's Strength!

All,
Another change in my worksheet was sparked by seeing some patterns as I work through the Belmont races. In looking at current races vs all the past performances available, I'm seeing some interesting results. These results seem to be particularly effective (remember just a few days of results are not very trustworthy) when comparing late speed, overall ratings and better than expected horses. Keep track of the horses that move up from the all races list to the recent races group. It may give you an added edge in your handicapping.
Thoropredictor can get you to think outside the box especially if you keep good records!
Maxspa

Weekly Progress!

All,
As I progress through the month of October, my Thoropredictor worksheet has changed on a weekly basis. At this point in time, this worksheet has shown development and is nearly complete. It allows me to use the Thoropredictor program easily without printing out the
charts and figures for the horses. It contains both information produced from Thoropredictor formulas and some data formed from my experience as handicapper.
What has really helped me understand this handicapping approach is two fold. One, I decided to let my experience with the program formulate my ideas on what factors are important and by keeping records I've been able (over the short haul) to verify their effectiveness.
Secondly, I'm not betting any money through the window until I'm comfortable with the program. This approach takes away the pressure a lost bankroll can have on the evaluation of a program.
Some of the sacred cows of handicapping have been questioned during this study. For example, I would have never believed that late speed was as important as the data from this software has shown. That's why having an open mind is so crucial to one's success!
Maxspa

Re: HANDICAPPING YOUR WAY.....YOUR IDEAS.....FINALLY!!

All,
Early speed horses have finished in the top 2 at a higher rate than previously. We've had some off tracks at Belmont this week and perhaps this factor affected the weekly results. Even with those statistics, This category did not exceed the late speed horse performances. They also had an unusual amount of young stake races and this could also have an influence on the results.
Past performance handicapping over a long time period, still presents an unusual amount of potent winners. Before my work with Thoropredictor I would have bet recent pp's would be tops without question. During my short time with this software using the last 7 pp's and the 3 best races have not produced as many winners and I'm stunned with those results.
On Saturday, all races being considered, Thoropredictor had the following exactas within its race ratings:Race 1-$37.80, Race 6- $58.50, race 7 $115.00, and Race 9 $41.20. That's 4 out of 6 playable races. Remember, I eliminate maiden races. A note of caution on those results is that some of the above races had several contenders and so eliminations and a certain combination of race categories care necessary for making a profit.
Each week by going over the results, it gives me ideas to follow that hopefully will make the difference. What an enjoyable experience thus far and yes, Thoropredictor will surprise you with how potent it can be on some occasions!
Maxspa

Re: HANDICAPPING YOUR WAY.....YOUR IDEAS.....FINALLY!!

All,
October and half of November races have been handicapped and I'm still making changes in my handicapping worksheet. Aqueduct ( my track of choice) has begun and I'm still seeing consistency in the ratings. Speed, class, late speed, and ratings are on top of my list for productive factor areas. Secondly, the last seven race handicapping approach has been modified. I'm still using this technique but in a secondary manner. I'm thinking how many races have I handicapped in my lifetime and used just the last few races for my betting process. Again you must use what the program strong areas are and that requires weekly reviews of the races you've handicapped.
On November 27th, I'm taking a trip to Las Vegas and will bet real money using the Thoropredictor -my way- based on my weekly reviews. I'll give you guys a report of my plays and how I made out. In addition I plan to enjoy some gourmet meals, tours and shows.
Meanwhile, I'm still enjoying the Thoropredictor experience!
Maxspa

Re: HANDICAPPING YOUR WAY.....YOUR IDEAS.....FINALLY!!

All,
Due to a rescheduling, my trip to Las Vegas began with a flight on Monday November 23rd. I was setup and ready to handicap Aqueduct on Wednesday, November 25th. My wagering patterns were based upon speed, class, late speed, and Jockey success with the horse. I selected a 2 by 4 horse exacta wager and a four horse exacta box for each of the six qualifying races Results on November 25th are as follows:
Race 1- exacta $44.20 Profit +$4.20
Race 2- exacta -------- loss -$40.00
Race 3- exacta -------- loss -$40.00
Race 5- exacta -------- loss -$40.00
Race 7- exacta $226.50 Profit +$413.00
Race 8- exacta $27.80 Profit +$15.60

Totals Profit +$312.80

Due to a change of hotels I was unable to get a computer hookup without a great deal of difficulty. However, I'm happy with this days results. At Aqueduct late speed numbers from Thoropredictor were dynamite.
Maxspa